This project is no longer being updated. What you see is below is frozen in time on October 1, 2020.

Shuler Unlock Model for COVID-19

For a detailed explanation about this model, see Robert Shuler’s paper.

Population: 212,559,409

  • Animate
  • Reset

How to Use

From the dropdown at the top of this page, you can select a US state or a country. The available data for the number of confirmed cases will be imported automatically. The COVID Tracking Project for the state-level data for the US. Coronavirus COVID19 API for the country-level data and for the county-level US data. Public Health Agency of Sweden for the Stockholm data.

R0: is basic reproduction number which is the average number of people who will contract the virus from one infected person.

Spreading Window: is the number of days an infected person remains contagious.

Total / Known Case Ratio: is the ratio between the actual number of infected people and the number of those confirmed by tests. If the tests are not widely available, only a small percentage of the infected people would be confirmed by tests.

Days to Draw: is the number of days into the future you would like to plot the chart.

Unlock Dates / %: As a public health official, you need to decide when to end the lockdown and to what degree. Here you can specify five dates and degrees in percentage. 100% would mean you allow everyone to go back to their normal lives without any restrictions. 0% would mean you tell everyone to isolate themelves at home. You can lock and unlock alternatingly by specifying 0% and 100% for any of the dates.

DRAW: Clicking on this button would draw the curves over the existing ones using the new parameters you set.

RE-DRAW: Clicking on this button would erase the existing charts and draw them from scratch using your new parameters.

Every time you draw or re-draw, the parameters are saved as a URL. If you share or bookmark the URL, you will be able to come back to it without having to enter the same parameters again.